Is another Big Leg Down possible? Looking at EOY 2022 vs. EOY 2018 and what's different this time.

I don't do day-trading. I'm not a guru. I don't know everything. I've simply been in crypto for 5 years now.

https://i.imgur.com/RYgwQpZ.png - If you weren't here EOY 2018, I advise you to check out this chart. It's not too detailed.

I believe that another leg down is possible and that right now we could be in that "2022 equivalent" of 2018's EOY crash. I'm still dollar-cost averaging right now and I'm sniping every buying opportunity below 20k that I think is "worth."

However, when I use the term in the title "Big Leg Down", I don't think we'll go as low as we did (a literal 50% or more drop) at EOY 2018. Why? Simple: Stablecoins. https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20180923/ - Check the market cap for tether. We only had 2.8 billion dollars of Tether circulating back then. I don't know how much of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that this was, but If we just use bitcoin as our metric back then, this would mean that Tether's marketcap was only 3% of Bitcoin's marketcap.

If we take the market cap of USDC, USDT, and BUSD and simply combine these three alone, then that is over 137 billion USD of stablecoins, or a little bit more than 1/3rd of Bitcoin's Market Cap of 360 billion USD. That's a lot of dry powder, isn't it? I mean, granted not all of it is in our hands.

I personally think that if we have "Another Leg Down" it will be heavily mitigated by two factors: 1 - stablecoins and 2 - big institutional players. The only question is, "how much mitigation will we see play out?"

I think we can say "another leg down" is possible, but I don't know how low we will go. My personal sentiment is that another 50% drop is unlikely, and I would be shocked if we dropped another 25% which would put bitcoin at 15,000 USD from 20k USD / BTC or about 14,100 if it were to drop 25% from 18,800 USD / BTC. Another source of signal might be "BTC dominance." Please see this chart from coingecko: https://i.imgur.com/mGDF3yo.png

BTC dominance chart from coingecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts

TL;DR - I think if we see another leg down, it might just be a flash crash or spending a week or two in a very red zone unless the whole macro-economic scene is looking God-awful. DCA is the way.