Over 66% of the total Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year. Thats a new record! Here is what that could mean:

The metric of illiquid supply defines how much of the bitcoin supply has not moved over a certain period because of that its often labeled as the ultimate “HODL metric“ by on-chain analyst. But before get a look on it here is a warning that on-chain analysis of crypto is a very big Experiment and even some analysts themselves are not sure what kind of influence on-chain metrics have on the crypto price action as most metrics are more long-term orientated. So it would not be wise to base your financial decisions off solely such metrics, but now lets dive in:

The illiquid supply is based off the amount of bitcoin that has not been moved out of a wallet and that over a certain time period and in relation to the total supply. The most famous one is the one-year illiquid supple that has just again made a new ATH as it has recently been sky-rocketing this year, which is weird as the price did the complete opposite…

Here a picture of the illiquid supply in relation to the BTC price.

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Illiquid Supply by Glassnode Studios (daily time-frame)

So we can clearly see a pattern that the illiquid supply falls during bull runs as many holders start to take profits and it rises during bear markets as many start to hodl for the long-term. The interesting thing here is that the rise of the illiquid supply usually happens just before the last leg down of the bear markets as in 2018 but now it was different… We saw a rise of the illiquid supply last year in December (the BTC price was $49k) when arguably many were sure we are still in a bull market.

To sum up, while this metric may not be the best to predict any short-term prices (as most indicators, even TA, are not). Though this metric is good to view the change of sentiment between “profit-taking in a bull run“ and “conviction in a bear market“, to some extent.