Perspective - if Bitcoin averages only 55K USD in 2028 then the average rate of return of BTC purchased during this rally is double the annualised historical returns of the S&P

People have become so accustomed to the insane average price growth of Bitcoin over the past 10 years that performance expectations have become deeply warped relative to what you can expect your money to do elsewhere.

It's healthy perspective when you consider what you can get for your money elsewhere. The average annualised S&P return works out at 9.6%, that means if you invested $1000 in SPY today, you're typically going to look at a bit over $1500 in asset value in 5 years time.

That means BTC purchased at $25,000 (significantly above where we are now) would need to be roughly $37500 in 2028 to garner the same returns as the S&P, that's not crypto as a whole, that's the bluechip of the cryptocurrency space.

I generally ignore bubbles and crashes when I think about BTC, most of us DCA and so we're getting far more exposure to the average YoY price than the new ATHs and market bottoms. Does it seem ridiculously conservative to project a $37500 average price on BTC in the year 2028? It does to me. That's what it would take for us to rival putting our money in SPY. If we set a $55000 price target for 2028, years after the next halving, then your money is doing twice the work it's doing for you in the stock market over the same period. That price is well below our historical ATH.