What could this bull market look like?

I love to speculate on what could happen so here is one possible story. After any substantial length of prices decline and no immediate hope on the horizon, most investors just move on with their lives. It usually takes about a year for most to capitulate. Regardless if they sold, or held or did some combination of both, they usually peek into the market from time to time just to look for any sign of life. Deep, deep inside they all yearn for another chance to ride that crypto wave again and if there is any signs that things are turning around they might or might not be ready. That chance is very very important because many want to redeem themselves for not selling on time, some want another chance to get in earlier then before, some just want to repeat their success from previous cycle, some are convinced this time will be different but all really want another go around.

It is very common to have a mini bull run first before the main event. It is because the investors are so eager to get back in, they are more likely to start the up trend ahead of time, especially if they find a good reason for it. Institutional money and whales are also pretty curious, how is the overall sentiment and readiness to engage the market again by the retail investors plus they don't want to leave them alone for too long, to keep that quiet yearning alive. Positive news or hype is usually the trigger to restart the cycle. This time around the pause in Fed's interest rate hikes and the hype around EFTs seem to be the spark that light up the market again together with initial money flow. When really thinking about it, nothing has actually happen as of yet, except an increase in possibility that something could, which is what markets react to anyways. Rates have not reversed yet and ETFs have not been approved yet but the reaction and speculation is enough to see who's paying attention and how much interest there really is in restarting this cycle again. If you see that retail is able and willing to put their money on the line again, you have the confirmation and the green light to bring in the big guns. But wait, they all missed the great entry prices, so how do we get them back. Well, that is exactly the reason you allow the mini bull run to take place and use it to guide the market and prices in the direction of your choosing.

That is what happened last time around. After the crypto winter of 2018 market awakened again to see if enough interest is out there. With the confirmation of a nice mini bull run that ended up peaking at 14k so 30% off the previous ATH, the whales organized a price decline of just over 50% while taking profits on the money they risked at the lowest levels, to test the bull run readiness of the masses. That level of decline, seemed a regular occurrence in crypto bull run so not to spook the retail crowd that things turned into a full on bear market. When the price ended the dip the whales simply came back with much bigger purchases to start a more aggressive way up and bull market got on its way. No one expected the Pandemic to happen and that dropped the prices even lower but you see my point.

Here we are today. Nothing but speculation, some news and initial whale investment has sparked the current mini bull market. The prices are closing on to 70% of previous ATH for BTC which is around 47k. The numbers are in, the track record is established and the sentiment is set. So it would not be crazy to think that if we reach levels anywhere between 40-50k BTC we could see a regular 50% pull back in price to stall the current mini bull run, give large profits to those that put up the money first to test the waters and then resume the bull trend with the main event still a head of us.

It is not in any charts, it is not a prediction but it is also a common occurrence and the reason why many expect the prices to dip in next weeks to months. The current strength of BTC and its refusal to dip bellow important support levels is also an important confirmation that the bulls are ready. Its painting a picture that supports the price dip to reset the long range bull market and start the mania season again. It is also reasonable that because we are at pretty healthy price levels already we could see most of the relevant tokens, reach and exceed their previous ATHs. The guess on which ones they would be, I will leave totally to you. How the current news and events will shape this market, I do not know. Maybe a delay of ETFs approval with profits taking will be used to get the 50% plus dip and reintroduction of interest rate cuts together with new whale investments and eventual approval of EFTs brings up back to a full bull mania. I'm not sure, you can speculate on that. For now I have very strong feeling that this price run up has a cap on it and it might bring a short term reversal in trend to accommodate what we just discussed.

Money makes the world go round and those that have it make it happen. The rest of us are just along for the ride and have no say on the direction but MAYBE we can figure out the bigger picture and have a chance of getting on the train at the right stop this time around.