So over the past few months I've been studying demographics and economics. Basically

• if someone is born today, we know they are most likely going to live until 80-90 years old.
• We know people are going to want to retire somewhere around 70 because that is the lie that was sold.
• We know health cost sky rocket the older someone gets on average.
• We know the first 20 years of someone's life they aren't spending any money or very minimum amount.
• We know between 20-40 years old the person tends to spend money on normal things like beds, kitchen stuff, etc.
• When the person gets in the later years they spend less to $0 on those things because they already have it. And the money moves into big ticket items like that car they always wanted, that trip they always wanted, etc but it tends to be 1 time thing. But outside of that the spending dramatically drops. This is caused by they already have most of what they want + their income dramatically drops. But again the biggest cost is things like healthcare (USA)

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https://preview.redd.it/cif5i6pyvbs81.png?905&format=png&auto=webp&s=c13412273a562b1ba44385f1cdc8fc22658155b7

Above is a chart from Real Vision, it shows the estimated retirement rate of people in the future. Note this was 2018 when that was made, and I can't find a more up to date chart.

Now if you take a look at the inflation vs recession

https://preview.redd.it/5pg1xqpzvbs81.png?1679&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ca4c8a4fd7fe828a679ae281a6749934e8305f2

We just crossed this and it bounced back, so we will see what will happen in the future. But in the past one of the big hits is 2008 time housing bubble collapse.

See the thing is when someone gets closer to retirement normally they will move their investments into a more stable and less risky market. In reality, 2008 wiped out many people's retirement and many people are still not recovered from what they lost in 2008. This forced people to put their money in higher risky markets (which might include crypto).

Part of this or a lot of this caused things like

https://preview.redd.it/vcwe21n0wbs81.png?1477&format=png&auto=webp&s=976da11327998496d649b272aaed03d7aba3a437

and what we might of seen in crypto. Note the dates when the spike happened. Basically, people DCA into markets through their retirement system or for retirement.

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What you need to keep in mind is what happens when people retire.

1. They stop putting money into their retirement. Most retirement plans will not let you put more money into it after you retired. And even if it allowed it, most never had the know how in doing things, or they just don't care. But at the end, the DCA into the market stops. So the growth stops.
2. They start pulling out, this causes a pull back on the market. Obviously a few doesn't matter. But as you see from the first chart, the growing number of millions all at once is happening.

So if you have a ton of people stop being buyers, and now becoming sellers. We now have a recipe for a near free falling market. What you most likely going to see is those near retirement or at retirement just retire and pull out as much as they can to save everything. Some (and this is happening today) selling their pensions or pulling out of their IRA early. And what happens is the first people who retire get the most, while everyone else gets screwed in a runaway market.

A lot of economist are saying that this next recession is going to be far worse than the great depression era, and it is likely to happen in the next few years. (None of this is financial advice btw)

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So what happens is

https://preview.redd.it/zmneemi1wbs81.png?3131&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8732310a65fc7638514be7f4725d547b051bcfe

https://preview.redd.it/m8nrasd7wbs81.png?3131&format=png&auto=webp&s=79f0ee4908c47944bd6a9122514bb561377770df

You have older and older groups going back to work because

• They are living way longer than they thought and the biggest cost in your life is just living.
• They lost too much in prior bad times
• Inflation cost increase
• Increasing healthcare cost
• And in the future for my generation it will be student loans

And as you can see, the older workers are now competing with some of the youngest now. Likely it is people who had good jobs ($50k-$100k+) jobs and due to age discrimination they can't do those jobs anymore. Now they are stuck with starter jobs and min wage. https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2021/12/17/too-many-older-workers-are-stuck-in-low-wage-jobs/?sh=1d1ce8916c15

Some might say, well younger people will pick up the slack. Well....

https://preview.redd.it/yrankj98wbs81.png?648&format=png&auto=webp&s=50ddadb463b6b04fe1ef228f27197ab0e6645ce5

So thanks due to bad gov policies and society pushing a bad idea (by force where if you don't jump then you don't get to a better life), younger people are stuck with a heavy bill in student loans, increase cost of living, increase taxes and types of taxes

https://preview.redd.it/n02qd7y8wbs81.png?792&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdb226bb88bac972e8f902495b4f1f34cfc03002

and a number of things which makes it impossible for the younger generations to support the older.

And then following generations it will be worse since the current generations are having WAY less kids

https://preview.redd.it/mvye8is9wbs81.png?1171&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b94b851b7f9304c2ee04b229d3e2409878599a5

Oh and top that automation is taken off so current generation and upcoming is screwed there too

https://preview.redd.it/36op4vjawbs81.png?1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1c745c1c28913e6361c464c9106a01665809191

TLDR What does all of this mean?

In a nut shell it looks like the older generations are about to or are retiring. Since they aren't adding anything more into the markets, but now selling. This has a strong likely to cause major drops. Because of past economic problems and other things, older generations had to invest into higher risk to high risk things which might include crypto (which means when the retirement really kicks up we might see a pretty big hit). The ones who couldn't retire or waited get screwed and now they basically can't retire until they die. But thanks to age discrimination and not being prepared for such factors, the older generations are going to be (and as charts show are) competing with the youngest of the labor force. The increase cost of living and the fact the youngest generations have a growing harder time in getting a time getting a job. And then because automation is lower the workforce in itself by a good amount. It is likely all groups will start pulling out of their investments early to support themselves and those around them.

(Side note: today in a hardware store I overheard a few people talking to each other how they had to sell their pension to help pay for medical bills and other things, and how their retirement is a shotgun or being worked to death.)

The take away from this isn't a buy or sell. It is we should watch what happens and adapt. There is no data showing how this will play out since in no time in world history has all these factors happened, the gov screwed up so bad and it is still around, and with modern tech it makes it impossible to do illegal stuff to just get by.

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What is your thoughts on all of this?